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Gut vs. Stats

On June 29th, 1990, Oakland’s Dave Stewart and the Dodgers’s Fernando Valenzuela both threw no-hitters. Stewart blanked the Toronto Blue Jays 5-0, and a few hours later Valenzuela did the same thing to the Saint Louis Cardinals with a final score of 6-0.

The rareness of this event was possible because Stewart and Valenzuela were such absolute studs at their profession. Also, in 1990 pitching philosophy was substantially different than it is in 2024. Starters in the 1990s threw a lot of innings. While no-hitters were rare in the 1990s, complete games by two great starters like Stewart and Valenzuela was a semi-regular occurrence. This meant they had a lot of innings to practice their craft. Not so now.

Modern baseball pitching wisdom, based on mountains of data, says that a batter gains an advantage each time he faces the same pitcher in the same game. This is the theory that led teams to begin experimenting with the Opener (a pitcher to start the game and pitch just one or two innings). It is also why we see so many pitchers pulled by the 7th inning these days, and why we almost never see a complete game anymore.

This is baseball by the numbers. For those of us raised on the game in a different era, this new way of handling pitchers often seems both counter-intuitive and aesthetically deflating.

Why does a manager pull a pitcher who is having a great day just to bring in someone from the bullpen. How often have we seen a starter breezing along, only to have them pulled for a Middle-Innings guy who quickly blows the lead?

What goes through my mind each time that happens is: Why fix something that ain’t broken?

While the data may seem to justify this kind of managerial decision in a majority of cases, the reality is that it does not always work. When the manager ignores his gut and what he is seeing on the field, he is often burned.

Our memories (psychologists tell us) tend to remember primarily exceptions. As baseball fans, we are hardwired to remember when something unpredicted/unexpected happens. So each time I am watching a game these days and a manager pulls a starter who seems to be doing just fine to bring in a reliever, my mind naturally recalls times I have seen this strategy fail. I also remember the times I have seen a starter go all nine or 10.

In Game 7 of the 1991 World Series, a game I was lucky enough to attend in person, Jack Morris threw 126 pitches in 10 innings. Though this was before the Stat revolution, old-school manager Tom Kelly could have gone with the existing numbers and brought in a reliever for Morris in the 8th, 9th, or 10th. But he did not. He went with his gut and his guy. And the result was one of the greatest games in baseball history.

Put that in your statistical formulas and run it!

PitchingIPHRERBBSOHRERA
Jack Morris, W (4-0)107002802.23
Team Totals107002800.00
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/28/2024.

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